Thefirst tropical storm of the seasonis likely to form in the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday, according to theNational Hurricane Center. Thehurricane center said early Wednesday morningthat an "elongated area of low pressure" located several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. The NHC said the system still lacks a "well-defined circulation" but that environmental conditions remain favorable for further development, and that a "tropical depression or tropical storm" is expected to form Wednesday afternoon or evening. The hurricane center says there is a 100% chance of formation through the next 48 hours. If the system becomes a tropical storm, it will be called Alvin, the first named tropical cyclone anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere this year. While the 2025 Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, the Atlantic season officially begins on June 1 and will last through the end of November. Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October. TheNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationreleased its prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, May 22,predicting an above-average season, with 13 to 19 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts. Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends. Prepare now for hurricanes:Here's what you should do to stay safe before a storm arrives Develop an evacuation plan: If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need anevacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there. Assemble disaster supplies: Whether you're evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you're going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy aftermath,NOAA said. Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions: Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for aninsurance check-upto make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn't cover flooding, so you'll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or theNational Flood Insurance Program. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period. Create a family communication plan: NOAA said to take the time now to write down yourhurricane plan, and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places, and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation. Strengthen your home: Now is the time to improve your home's ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and/or impact glass; seal outside wall openings. Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X@GabeHauarior email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Tropical Storm Alvin tracker: See path of storm likely to form
